Ever since Tom Dwan’s latest thrashing at the Durrrr Challenge tables, there’s been a buzz about whether or not “Durrrr” can make a run of his own. Also, there have been news headlines and buzz-worthy forum topics in recent days, so we decided to use this break in the action as an opportunity examine the headlines and ask several poker personalities what they think of the match-up between Dwan and Dan “JungleMan12” Cates.
A website claiming to be the “Website Washington Lives By” wrote an article entitled “Lone Shark” that featured Cates. The article was clearly written by someone that has no grasp of poker, much less the culture and dynamics of the online game. The bias in it is the same old argument we’ve been hearing for the last five years from uneducated people. Fortunately, the poker community rose to defend itself once again in comments on the article’s footer. There has been no comment from Cates about the article, but the poker community has most assuredly spoken.
World Series of Poker Europe
The last time we heard from Dwan about the challenge, he said he wanted to get it done before he headed out to London. Apparently, the combatants couldn’t figure out a good time since the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Europe has now started, with Dwan playing and rumors persisting that Cates is making it out himself in the next few days.
A post on the TwoPlusTwo forums claims to have captured a chat between “JungleMan12” and “Durrrr,” with Cates asking Dwan when they can play again. Dwan allegedly claimed that he had been drinking all night and had a tournament in 12 hours, so he was in no shape to play right there and then. However, the two might be playing for an hour or so just before that tournament starts, but we’ll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition.
Stats, Stats, Stats
The stats are pouring in over at Full Tilt Poker for this match-up. We know that, overall, there have been 6,820 out of the 50,000 hands played in four sessions that span about ten and a half hours’ worth of time. We know that Cates is up $691,146 and has done that by winning 4,193 of the hands played, which equates to a 61.4% win rate. The average dollar amount won per winning hand is $2,327 to $1,600 in favor of Dwan, who won the biggest pot so far at $131,588. However, the next four largest pots in the challenge, totaling approximately $417,000, all belong to Cates.
We asked a few people you might know in the poker community if they thought Cates had a legitimate shot to win the Durrrr Challenge. Here are some of the responses we received:
Pascal “StakeMonster” Tremblay (Mid/High Stakes Heads-Up Regular): “Having been Daniel’s student for 18 months and having heard him analyze the game for over 20 hours, I was pretty certain that he would win the challenge. It’s not over yet by any stretch of the imagination, but I have full confidence in Daniel’s abilities to win the challenge convincingly.”
“DiscoBisco” (Coach at DragTheBar.com and noted TwoPlusTwo contributor): “I think it’s cool to see someone… from the mid-stakes rise through the limits and take on ‘Durrrr’ heads-up.”
Alex Huang (CardRunners Brand Manager): “I wasn’t sure who to expect to triumph in the Durrrr Challenge. Obviously, Tom Dwan has proven himself to be an elite player, but ‘JungleMan12’ had ascended the stakes so quickly. I certainly felt the odds Cates received (3-1) were incredibly favorable. I think the challenge is far from over. They are less than 15% of the way through and Cates has been on the favorable end of some coolers for big pots thus far. Without a few of those hands, the score of the challenge would be much tighter.”
“DamnRinger” (Coach and mid-stakes full ring regular): “I thought ‘JungleMan12’ had a shot going in, but I don’t think by any means it’s over. Some crazy stuff can happen with ‘Durrrr’s’ style.”