Priced In and Behind

In the recent nine-minute running of the Durrrr Challenge, a $189,000 pot was built. On a flop of Q-J-K with two clubs, Patrik Antonius led out for $1,200 and Tom “durrrr” Dwan popped it to $3,600. Antonius made the call and the seven of spades hit on the turn. Then, fireworks went off, as Dwan bet $12,200, Antonius raised to $53,400, Dwan came over the top all-in for $88,000, and Antonius called. The river was a red jack and Dwan’s 10s-Ah-8d-Qh for Broadway was enough to scoop the pot. Antonius showed Qs-9c-6c-2s for queens-up and a busted flush draw. sat down with PokerXFactor instructor Chris “Fox” Wallace to get some insight into this hand. What’s going through Antonius’ mind in this hand? He just has a gutshot straight draw, a flush draw, and second pair.

Chris Wallace: Antonius can beat a draw. If he’s up against a made hand, he has a draw. It’s a pretty good spot to make a pressure raise. When Durrrr bets $12,000 and Antonius moves to $53,000, he’s in a spot to put on pressure. The problem is that Durrrr has the nut straight and knows that Antonius is in the spot to put on the pressure. That’s why Durrrr bets out. Once he gets raised, there’s no way he can fold anything. He’s putting out $30,000 to win $150,000, or 5:1. If he knew Durrrr’s hand, he’s still getting the right odds to call because of his flush draw. Talk about what you mean by applying pressure.

Chris Wallace: The pressure comes from the stack sizes. With some stack sizes, you want to check-raise the flop. If the stacks are deep, you want to bet out and then 3bet shove. Durrrr knows that when he opens for $12,000, Antonius is going to see that there’s $25,000 in the pot and bet. In this case, Durrrr is being rewarded for the aggression he’s shown in the past. Do you think Dwan’s $2 million lead is insurmountable with only 17,000 hands left?

Chris Wallace: When you’re two-thirds of the way through it, it’s 2:1 that the guy who is in the lead is going to be the winner. My money is on Durrrr, but the swings have been pretty big. It’s possible that Antonius could come back, but I don’t picture Antonius winning at a clip of a big blind every three hands. It would be a real statistical outlier for Durrrr to be that far ahead and then have something that drastic happen. I would probably lay 10:1 on Durrrr right now and might be safe at 15:1 or 20:1.

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