Analysis from June 11th Session

When long time players of No Limit Texas Hold’em move over to Omaha, they are always reminded by the long time Omaha players that the game is one of big swings and massive variance. Oftentimes the mathematically correct thing to do in the game is to shove even though you are in a 50-50 situation, and if things go wrong, you can end up broke rather quickly.

The Durrrr Challenge resumed on June 11th following a mini-session where Tom Dwan thoroughly whipped Patrik Antonius to the tune of more than $376,000. The lead that Antonius had taken to over $400,000 over the course of 15,000 hands has now almost evaporated. How did this happen? Let’s take a look into two critical hands posted from that fateful session.

durrrr Hits a Higher Straight

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players

durrrr (BTN/SB): $86865.50
Patrik Antonius (BB): $113115.00

Pre Flop: ($600.00)
durrrr raises to $1200, Patrik Antonius raises to $3600, durrrr calls $2400

Flop: ($7200.00) 5h 2d 4d (2 players)
Patrik Antonius bets $6000, durrrr calls $6000

Turn: ($19200.00) Th (2 players)
Patrik Antonius bets $19200, durrrr raises to $76800, Patrik Antonius calls $57600

River: ($172800.00) 3h (2 players)
Patrik Antonius bets $26715 all in, durrrr calls $465.50 all in

Final Pot: $173731.00
durrrr shows 6c 8c 2s 5c (a straight, Six high)
Patrik Antonius shows 7s 8d 4s Ad (a straight, Five high)
durrrr wins $173730.50


At the start of the hand we saw durrrr on the button with 6-8-2-5 single suited, which made it one of those tricky draw hands that could possibly hit a very deceptive straight, or totally wiff and only serve to bluff with. Durrrr led out with a raise, and Antonius looked at his 7-8-4-A double suited hand and 3Bet as has been the case for most of the challenge, which was flatted by Dwan. Pre-flop we calculate that Antonius definitely had an advantage at 60-40 over durrrr. The flop of 5-2-4 two diamonds meant nothing but absolute action: Dwan had flopped two pair and a gutshot to the nut straight, while Antonius flopped middle pair, a double gutshot (3 or 6) and a nut flush draw. When we’ve seen these players with these types of hands, we’ve typically seen all the money end up in the middle of the table. The combatants actually were at that critical 50-50 coinflip situation at the flop, and Antonius led out for full pot and was flatted by Dwan, which was a little curious since up to this time he’s typically got it all in during similar situations. Perhaps the meta-game has changed for Dwan, who flatted the flop bet and saw the 10 of hearts come on the turn. This card didn’t help Antonius for his draws and swung the favor slightly for Dwan to 62-38%, but still Antonius led out with a full pot bet. This time, Dwan shoved full pot over the flop bet realizing on a good read that he had the advantage. Antonius curiously called the bet for $57,600 more leaving only $26,715 behind. The river brought a 3 of hearts which Durrrr couldn’t have been happy to see, but since durrrr only had $465 left calling the all-in bet from Antonius at the river was a no brainer considering the $173,700 in the pot. Dwan turned over the six high straight, and Antonius was the big loser with the 5 high straight.

durrrr Hits a Straight

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players

durrrr (BB): $79996.50
Patrik Antonius (BTN/SB): $159993.00

Pre Flop: ($600.00)
Patrik Antonius raises to $1200, durrrr raises to $3600, Patrik Antonius calls $2400

Flop: ($7200.00) 4h 7d Js (2 players)
durrrr checks, Patrik Antonius bets $6000, durrrr raises to $25200, Patrik Antonius calls $19200

Turn: ($57600.00) 8c (2 players)
durrrr checks, Patrik Antonius requests TIME, Patrik Antonius bets $57600, durrrr calls $51196.50 all in

River: ($159993.00) Qs (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $159993.00
durrrr shows Jh 9h Td Jc (a straight, Queen high)
Patrik Antonius shows Tc 5h 8s 8h (three of a kind, Eights)
durrrr wins $159992.50


This time the players actually had some Omaha hands that most people get excited about, with durrrr holding the J-9-T-J single suited hand and Antonius the more modest T-5-8-8 single suited (to the same suit but lower as Dwan). Clearly, any player can see that Dwan’s hand is far superior and the numbers hold true, calculating that durrrr held a 76-24% pre-flop advantage. The pre-flop action from Antonius and durrrr was consistent with bet–3Bet–call from button. The flop came 4-7-J giving durrrr top set while Antonius didn’t flop anything but a double gutshot to a 6 or an 9. The pre-flop advantage didn’t change at the flop and durrrr clearly laid the trap by checking the flop and allowing Antonius to bet full pot, which was raised by Dwan and very surprisingly called by Antonius. We’re not sure, but there is some evidence to suggest that Antonius wasn’t on his usual A-game at this point in the session because this call against a check-raise (from a player that really hasn’t checked raised him historically) holding a marginal hand isn’t something we’ve seen from Antonius. Maybe Patrik was hoping a good scare card could come on the turn (it did for him unfortunately) and get it in if Dwan checked again to show strength and force his opponent off his hand. However the 8 on the turn gave durrrr top set plus the nut straight with no possible flush draws. Antonius hit 2nd set and as soon as durrrr checked, he put Dwan all-in. The former was all too happy to call as a 90% favorite to win plus 7.5% to chop. With the Ace of spades on the river, Antonius had gotten his money in terribly and dropped a nearly $81,000 pot to Dwan.

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