Analysis from Feb 9th Session

It’s hard to imagine, but this heads up matchup between Tom Dwan and Patrik Antonius is now over a year old. While we wonder what will actually happen if/when this portion of the challenge ever ends (remember there are guys waiting for a crack at Dwan after Antonius) lets take a look at the latest session recorded. At this point, Dwan is up almost $1.4 million and it would take a really hot run for Antonius to get this thing close. Let’s analyze two hands from the session played on February 9th to see how things went down.

Patrik Gets Some Help on the River

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players

durrrr (BTN/SB): $75389.00
Patrik Antonius (BB): $198788.50

Pre Flop: ($600.00)
durrrr raises to $1200, Patrik Antonius raises to $3600, durrrr calls $2400

Flop: ($7200.00) 7s Qc 4c (2 players)
Patrik Antonius checks, durrrr bets $4800, Patrik Antonius calls $4800

Turn: ($150778.00) Jh (2 players)
Patrik Antonius checks, durrrr bets $16800, Patrik Antonius raises to $67200, durrrr calls $66989 all in

River: ($150778.00) 5s (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $150778.00
durrrr shows 3h Qh 3h Qs (three of a kind, queens)
Patrik Antonius shows 3s 7h 6s 4h (a straight, seven high)
Patrik Antonius wins $150,778.50

Analysis

Pre-flop, Dwan acted first on the button with 3-Q-3-Q. He made a raise and Antonius responded with a 3bet holding 3-4-6-7 double-suited to hearts and spades. Dwan called and the two saw a flop of 7-Q-4. This flop, short of hitting quads, was as good as Dwan could hope for, top set. Antonius flopped bottom two pair plus a straight draw and decided to check-call. The jack of hearts on the turn didn’t improve either player, but Antonius decided to go for a check-raise shove semi-bluff, which was a no brainer for Dwan to call. At this point in the hand, Dwan held a commanding 90% to 10% lead with a $150,778 pot at stake. Historically we’ve seen Dwan run streaky throughout the challenge, the five of spades spiked the straight for Antonius on the river.

durrrr Hits a Full House on the River

Full Tilt Poker $200/$400 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 2 players

durrrr (BB): $136785.00
Patrik Antonius (BTN/SB): $103199.50

Pre Flop: ($600.00)
Patrik Antonius raises to $1200, durrrr raises to $3600, Patrik Antonius calls $2400

Flop: ($7200.00) 10s 2d 6d (2 players)
durrrr checks, Patrik Antonius bets $6000, durrrr calls $6000

Turn: ($19200.00) 2h (2 players)
durrrr checks, Patrik Antonius bets $14800, durrrr calls $14800

River: ($48800.00) Ks (2 players)
durrrr checks, Patrik Antonius bets $48800, durrrr calls $48800

Final Pot: $146400.00
durrrr shows Kd Qc 2s As (a full house, twos full of Kings)
Patrik Antonius shows 3s 7c 5h 4d (a pair of Twos)
durrrr wins $146,400.50

Analysis

This time, Antonius was on the button and raised with his 3-4-5-7 rainbow drawing hand. Dwan 3bet with a great heads-up Omaha hand of K-Q-2-A suited to spades (with the ace) and Antonius called. The flop came T-2-6 with two diamonds, which gave Antonius a straight draw and Durrrr bottom pair. This time, it was Dwan who check-called the flop, but the two on the turn gave trips for Dwan, who decided to mix it up and check-riase. Antonius didn’t budge, for reasons we can’t really fathom; drawing to a straight on a paired board in Omaha isn’t usually the kind of thing that’s encouraged. However, when playing heads-up against such an aggressive opponent, clearly some meta-game played into his decision making. The king on the river nailed Dwan, giving him the boat. This is really where Dwan made a decent pot a great pot by knowing his opponent. Instead of value betting here, he remained patient and checked, apparently knowing that Antonius would fire a third bullet. In the end, Antonius fired a pot-sized river bet and Dwan’s patience was rewarded to the tune of $146,400.

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